Archive for February, 2009

Reaction to Barack Obama’s Speech

 

Newsweek Cover

Newsweek Cover

I started a three part series “Exploring the Myths of the Consumer-Driven Economy” a couple of days ago, and I intend to get back to that. But yesterday was a day full of events that just demand comment. Ben Bernanke gave assurances and the recession might end this year, and it sent the stock market up and gold solidly down. Then later that day, Barack Obama addressed the nation and reaffirmed what Newsweek had already declared on its cover. We are all Socialists now. 

 

It was a long hard road to get America here; we have a strong tendency towards individualism and an inherent distrust of the powers of government. At least, we used to once upon a time. Not anymore. Now we have to depend on the powers of the state to correct the excesses of the free market, and we can not rely on the forces of free enterprise to get us out of this crisis. It is only through the intervention of government that we can put this crisis to a end. Or, in the words of our new President:

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Barrick Gold Down Heavily After Bernanke Comments

Helicopter Ben testified before both houses of Congress today and that the recession might end this year. It appears that these comments sent the stock market up over three percent. Citigroup, which has been circling the drain over fears that the bank would require nationalization that would wipe out share holder value gained over 21% because Ben said that the US Government would not need to take such action. Gold fell to around $950 an ounce and, most mystifying of all to me, Barrick Gold (ticker symbol=ABX) and fell over 11%.

Wow. That must have been some speech. It’s hard for me to imagine Barrick falling 11% because Ben said the recession “might” end in 2009. After all, even at $950, gold is still close to its all time high. I guess people were figuring that, if the recession ends, gold will no longer be in demand. Therefore, the price of gold should fall, and Barrick will not make as much money. 

Here’s the thing they are missing. Read the rest of this entry »

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Exploring the Myths of the Consumer Driven Economy: Part I

Roger recently posted in comments that deflation was bound to continue for “the next 2-3 year period.” His argument referenced a number of different sources and pulls in a lot of complex theories. I feel that it would be best to analyze these points one by one because these are the same points that get tossed around by people on a daily basis. I figure that doing so will take three different posts in a series where I explore economic myths. In so doing I’m going to provide a lot of definitions that are slightly different from the definitions that we here economics spouting. You will find that my explanations provide a great deal of clarity and reduce the situation to mere common sense. 

Let’s start with what wealth is. Wealth is a stock of assets. Assets are, for the most part, unconsumed economic goods. We traditionally think of wealth in terms of money and, back in the days of the gold standard, money was itself an unconsumed economic good. However today our modern money has been technically divorced from economic goods and services. It’s not a complete divorce because we can still use Federal Reserve Notes to pay for things. But the rate of exchange between money and good and services fluctuates from day to day. If we ever found that we could not exchange US Dollars for goods then we would cease to desire them at all and someone who had a lot of them would not be considered rich. This proves my point about wealth. If someone has a mass of things that either are unconsumed/functional economic goods (i.e. real estate, a car, a storehouse of fine wines)  or things that are immediately convertible into such (money) then we would consider him wealthy provided that he did not also have debts that exceeded his assets.

Which brings us to the next question, what is a debt? Read the rest of this entry »

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